by Jerry Agar

President Obama’s approval numbers have steadily dropped to as low as 47 percent.  The Washington Examiner called it a devastating drop.

Adding to Mr. Obama’s woes are additional numbers that show that Sarah Palin is nearly even with him in approval and that 44 percent of Americans say they’d rather have George W. Bush back in the saddle.

Bloggers and commentators on the right have greeted this news with glee, certain that it means that Obama’s policies are failing with the public and that he is destined to repeat all but Bill Clinton’s modern day Democratic record of one term presidencies.

They should take a breath.

Pollster.com reports, “I've been struck for some time by the similarity of circumstance between Presidents Reagan and Obama. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for their party in both houses of Congress. Both faced 'worst since the depression' economic circumstances. And each in his own very different ways attempted to reshape government in the early months in office."

Take a look at Pollster.com’s chart showing Obama’s and Reagan’s approval ratings over the first three quarters of their administrations and you see a nearly parallel journey.

Bill Clinton had a record slide in approval numbers during his first year and he went on to serve two terms. 

Ronald Reagan started badly, in terms of popular opinion, yet had one of the nation’s most successful presidencies.

Certainly an argument can be made that Reagan let the economy heal itself, while Obama, like FDR, is slowing, perhaps even preventing, a recovery.  Unemployment continues to grow despite all of Obama’s “recovery” activity.

We have no way of knowing what other factors will influence the public over the next few years.  No one has a crystal ball.

Right now the economy is primary.  America has shown a remarkable ability to recover economically, sometimes despite, not because of presidential policies.  Should that happen, Obama – rightly or wrongly – could get the credit, increased approval ratings, and a win in 2012.