10 Years until Your Share of the Nation’s Debt Doubles

A painstakingly accurate chart from the Mercatus Center's Veronique de Rugy illustrates what current policies will do to our share of the nation's debt. Take your portion today, and double it.

by Ashley Muchow

The Mercatus Center Senior Fellow Veronique de Rugy illustrates the ten year impact of current federal policies — policies that have pushed the national debt to levels never before seen.

The chart below plots what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has issued for baseline public debt projections if current federal policies continue. That’s in ten years the debt held by the public will nearly double. The CBO estimates that public debt will reach $18.3 trillion by 2021 as a result of the fiscal policies currently in place.

Want to hear the real kicker? This baseline estimate is conservative. The CBO’s numbers hold the following to be true, the Bush tax cuts are allowed to expire, the alternative minimum tax remains un-indexed to inflation, real discretionary spending remains constant, and physician repayments under Medicare are drastically lowered. Even CBO finds this scenario unlikely.

Under a more realistic scenario, where physician reimbursement under Medicare gradually increases, spending is not bound by PAYGO, and taxes do not consume 21% of the economy, the CBO estimates public debt will reach $19.4 trillion, or 97% of GDP by the year 2021.

The reality of this mounting debt, and of the interest payments it will require, are vivid reminders that action must be taken to promote fiscal order.