All neighbor states grow as Illinois population shrinks by 32,826

Illinoisans moving to other states was the sole reason for population decline in 2023. It’s not a Midwestern thing, because our neighbors are growing.

It’s not the weather. It’s not the geography, except maybe Springfield.

Illinois’ population declined by 32,826 residents from July 2022-July 2023, according to estimates released Dec. 19 by the U.S. Census Bureau.

All of Illinois’ neighboring states saw their populations grow during the year.

Indiana (+29,925) added the greatest number of residents followed by Wisconsin (+20,412); Missouri (+18,988); Kentucky (+14,591); Iowa (+7,311); and Michigan (+3,980.

The sole reason for Illinois’ population decline was a massive outmigration of residents to other states. In 2023, nearly 84,000 Illinoisans left the state on net. Even more concerning for the state is most other surrounding states are attracting residents, disproving the notion the reason for Illinois’ population struggles are driven by the weather. Only Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota join Illinois as net-losers when only domestic migration is considered.

Even among neighboring states who lost more residents than they gained as a result of interstate moves, Illinois (-6.7 net outmigrants per 1,000 residents) is losing residents more than 4 times faster than Michigan (-1.5 net outmigrants per 1,000 residents) and nearly six times faster than Iowa (-1.1 net outmigrants per 1,000 residents).

Obviously, Illinois’ population woes compared to neighboring states isn’t being driven by the climate. When taxes were not a response option, surveys of those who left the state showed the major reasons were for better housing and employment opportunities. Both have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois.

High taxes were the No. 1 reason Illinoisans considered leaving the state. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state in 2016. It also found “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave,” with 27% citing that motive. The Illinois Policy Institute’s Lincoln Poll this year found 51% of the voters surveyed would leave if they could. Again, most blamed high taxes.

The fact Illinois’ population is declining while all neighboring states continue to grow should tell our state’s leaders they need to adopt policies that would make it easier for residents to stay in Illinois. Reforms that would ease Illinoisans’ tax burden or reduce arduous business regulations are needed.

Illinois can be more affordable and stop the departures by focusing policies on helping residents attain the American Dream.