An honest budgeting process requires some idea of long-term revenue expectations. In the aftermath of record tax hikes passed earlier this year, one has to ask: will state lawmakers respect the sacrifices taxpayers are making and budget responsibly?

Three separate state entities—the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Office of the Comptroller and the legislative Commission on Forecasting and Government Accountability—have each released revenue forecasts: None have offered projections that extend to the 2016 fiscal year, when revenues are scheduled to decline as recent tax hikes sunset.

To put Illinois on the path to a balanced budget, general revenue spending must be set at levels that are sustainable after tax revenues drop-off in 2016. The Institute’s projections suggest that Illinois will have—at the most—about $33.2 billion to dedicate to operational spending, debt service and employee pensions in FY2016. In fact, it’s highly likely that revenues will fall short of that mark.

There are many factors that should caution lawmakers from counting heavily on this figure: lost revenue from the state’s tax amnesty program, uncertain revenues from the recently questioned capital plan and the volatility of the state’s economy

A budget that exceeds $33 billion places Illinois on an unsustainable path and a path that is destined to result in state deficits and continued fiscal uncertainty.