Vallas: It was a bad weekend, but Chicago’s violent crime rate falling

A violent Independence Day weekend has Chicagoans worried about violent crime, but it was a spike and not a trend. Crime is falling, thanks to new law enforcement efforts.

Chicagoans suffered another tragic, violent Independence Day weekend, unfortunately breaking away from a months-long trend of declining violent crime.

But the alarming headlines need context: the overall trend is improving, and that’s because law enforcement is improving.

Major cities across the country, including Chicago, New York and Los Angeles, had seen significant declines in violent crime since the unrest of 2020. Chicago’s reduction in murders and shootings, as well as its general decline in violent crime, appeared to mirror national trends. The ugly weekend was an exception.

Much credit is owed to Chicago Police Department officers and leadership, city residents, community violence intervention groups, the business community, and state and county leaders. Still, the recent decline in Chicago’s murder rate is neither historic nor unprecedented; the city has experienced wild fluctuations in murders and shootings during the past three decades. In fact, both Mayors Richard M. Daley and Rahm Emanuel oversaw historic drops in violent crime during their administrations.

While many factors influenced these trends, police staffing stands out: murder rates have closely tracked major swings in officer headcount – Chicago has cut 2,103 police positions.

Nationally, murders spiked in 2020 as anti-police protests drove down police activity. In big cities, demoralized officers left the force, and police staffing and activity fell. New policies, such as “no-chase” rules, and the sudden mass closure of schools further constrained law enforcement. Arrest rates plummeted, and pretrial release expanded in many jurisdictions.

There are obvious reasons why Chicago has been an outlier in recent years. The city has seen violent crime rise more sharply during national surges and decline more slowly when crime dropped elsewhere. Chicago’s surge in violent crime and slower reduction can be explained by a convergence of poor decisions:

• Police staffing and leadership: CPD strength was reduced through attrition, and the budget was eventually stripped of over 2,100 police positions. The number of detectives shrank even more. Combined with restraints on proactive policing and ineffective leadership under Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s police superintendent, arrest rates plummeted.
• Pretrial release: The Cook County criminal justice system expanded pretrial release, emptying the jail. Nearly 20% of those arrested for violent crime since 2020, and 408 arrests for murder or attempted murder, involved individuals out on pretrial release for a felony. Given low arrest rates for murder and attempted murder, the actual number may be far greater.
• Prolonged school closures: Chicago endured COVID-related economic restrictions longer than most cities, and its schools were kept closed for an unprecedented 78 consecutive weeks. The consequences were catastrophic: thousands of students dropped out, there was a 50% increase in murders of school-age youth and an increase in violence committed by out-of-school youth.

The sudden reversal in violent crime is equally easy to explain. It coincides with the removal of pandemic-era restrictions, especially the reopening of schools, and a return to more proactive law enforcement. There has also been a renewed focus on high-crime neighborhoods, an expansion of social services and violence interrupters in addition to an increased police presence.

The importance of proactive policing and enforcing laws cannot be overstated.

The selection of Larry Snelling as superintendent of police has restored proactive policing and embraced evidence-based “focused deterrence” strategies. Snelling has concentrated police resources on the small number of offenders – mostly young, gang-involved men – who drive most of the crime, while working closely with violence interrupters on preventive and de-escalation strategies.

Additionally, Cook County State’s Attorney Eileen Burke has reversed many of predecessor Kim Foxx’s policies. In sharp contrast to Foxx, Burke has both applied the law as written and consistently filed appropriate charges against criminal defendants. Under Burke, detentions for serious crimes have risen, and the county jail population has returned to pre-COVID levels. The jail has seen a significant increase in violent criminals, gun offenders and domestic violence offenders being held.

The questions now are: Where does Chicago go from here? What must be done to continue reducing violent crime permanently?

• Restore police strength: Rebuild CPD to pre-COVID staffing levels and replace CTA’s private security with sworn officers to improve emergency response. Use restored overtime budgets and cut privatized security to fund new hires.
• Reform pretrial release: Keep violent and repeat offenders off the streets by revoking bail and imposing mandatory sentences for those who violate protection orders, threaten victims or witnesses or assault first responders.
• Target high-crime areas: Continue and expand focused policing and the efforts of violence interrupters in high-crime neighborhoods. Pair this with real opportunities for job training, addiction recovery and mental health care, not just lip service from the Johnson administration.
• Engage schools: Keep campuses open after hours for safe learning and recreation. Partner with city agencies and private groups to offer paid, year-round work-study programs as alternatives to low-value electives.
• Support displaced populations: Expand access to apprenticeships, job placement and community-based services for young adults and formerly incarcerated residents to help them reenter the workforce and society.

Despite some improvement as of May, Chicago remains the most violent major U.S city, leading in murders. This city ranks second only to Philadelphia in per capita murders.

This weekend’s tragedy should remind people there’s still more to do to ensure every Chicagoan can live a safe, comfortable life in the city.