VALLAS: Don’t be fooled by Pritzker’s boasts of population gains

Roughly half of Illinois residents say they would leave the state if they could. That warning should be a wake-up call to state and local leaders.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker is spinning Illinois’ population increase of 16,108 as proof his policies are working. It’s nonsense. Illinois lost roughly 40,000 residents, and that decline was offset by an influx of about 45,000 migrants.

Illinois remains among the states with the highest domestic outmigration, its demographic decline masked only by migrant arrivals as the “Great Displacement” accelerates under Pritzker.

Illinois’ continuing exodus reflects deep economic and social upheaval. The state is losing more affluent residents while gaining lower-income ones through both interstate and international migration, a shift driven by so-called progressive policies.

Illinois has hemorrhaged roughly 1.6 million people since 2000 – the third-largest net loss in the nation, behind only California and New York. Even with the recent influx of migrants, Chicago’s population sits near a century-long low. More than half of every Illinois county has lost population.

Illinois isn’t just losing people – it’s losing income. The IRS reports that in 2022 alone, 87,311 residents left, taking $9.9 billion in adjusted gross income. Most were in their prime earning years, eroding the state’s tax base and weakening revenues from property, sales and consumption taxes.

In 2022, Illinois was the nation’s second-biggest loser of households ages 26-35 earning more than $200,000. Unsurprisingly, low-tax states such as Florida and Texas attract many of these upwardly mobile millennials. Illinois has been bleeding this group for more than a decade, and the pace is accelerating.

In 2022, the average adjusted gross income for these departing households was $435,000. The pattern continues among those ages 35-45 earning more than $200,000, where Illinois ranks 48th nationally for losses. The average AGI for this group approaches $700,000.

The cost to taxpayers has also been significant. Illinois has spent roughly $3 billion statewide on programs supporting and educating new migrants, including about $600 million from the city of Chicago.

Illinois leaders must curb our domestic outmigration crisis. By driving out high-income taxpayers while attracting subsidized newcomers, already struggling residents and businesses are forced to pick up the tab. IRS migration data show the income gap between outmigrants and immigrants grew from $5,519 in 2010 to $37,922 in 2022 – during the height of the border crisis and migrant influx.

Pritzker’s touted population “gains” are not evidence of economic revival but of surging international migration. Despite this influx, Chicago’s population remains lower than it was a century ago. The displacement has fallen heavily on Black residents.

From 2000 to 2020, the city has lost more than 250,000 Black residents, mostly middle-income families. The adult Black population has declined 14%, while the number of Black children has dropped nearly 50%. Black enrollment in Chicago Public Schools is now less than half of what it was in 1999–2000.

Pritzker masks income loss with new arrivals, and job loss with public sector growth.

Illinois’ gerrymandered political system and billionaire governor continue to prioritize government growth over private-sector vitality. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that from 2019 to 2024 Illinois added 11,542 public-sector jobs while losing 1,942 private-sector jobs. Public employment now accounts for 13.4% of the workforce.

Illinois has added only 15,500 net new jobs since January 2019 – the second-worst record in the nation. In contrast, Florida and Texas added 1.1 million and 1.5 million jobs, respectively.

During that same time, the state increased per-resident collections by 44%, a jump from $2,790 to $4,030 per person. This was double the pace of inflation during the time. Since taking office, Pritzker has raised state taxes and fees at least 49 times.

Illinois now ranks first nationwide in combined state and local taxes, fines and fees – but last in economic equity and 40th in racial equality in education. The state’s “progressive” model has delivered higher taxes, weak growth, declining student enrollment and elevated crime.

Roughly half of Illinois residents say they would leave the state if they could. That warning should be a wake-up call to state and local leaders.

This population shift is not temporary. It is the predictable outcome of failed progressive policies that favor government expansion over economic strength – and use international migration as a tool for political preservation.