Quinn administration cost estimates for Medicaid expansion could be off by at least $6.3 billion

Back in February, Illinois Senate Democrats pushed through Senate Bill 26, which would impose ObamaCare’s massive expansion of Medicaid on Illinois.

Back in February, Illinois Senate Democrats pushed through Senate Bill 26, which would impose ObamaCare’?s massive expansion of Medicaid on Illinois.

You may recall that when this bill was debated in committee, proponents were allowed an hour of testimony, but I was given less than one minute to testify in opposition. The bill is sitting in the House and is expected to be heard later this spring.

One question frequently asked is how much the Medicaid expansion bill will actually cost. Unsurprisingly, no fiscal note has been attached to the bill, meaning lawmakers weren’?t clued in on the costs before voting.

But that’s probably just as well. The Department of Healthcare and Family Services, or HFS, is busy distributing a “fact sheet” outlining its projections. These projections have numerous questionable assumptions, many of which I’ll review more thoroughly in follow-up posts, but let’s start small. Let’s take a look at the per-person costs the Quinn administration is predicting.

Fortunately, Illinois lawmakers have the benefit of reviewing the experiences of other states that have already expanded Medicaid eligibility to childless adults, the group targeted by ObamaCare. You might think these states’ experiences would be highly relevant to informing state officials how the optional expansion might affect Illinois. Apparently the Quinn administration disagrees.

In its fact sheet, HFS estimates that childless adults will cost just 10 percent more to insure than low-income parents. This 10 percent is supposed to serve as a “buffer” to “accommodate for potential differences in health status.” HFS doesn’t bother to explain how it came up with the 10 percent figure, so let’s look at the cost differences in those states that have already expanded Medicaid eligibility.

Childless adults are much more costly than low-income parents
Monthly Medicaid costs per person

Source: Foundation for Government Accountability

Note: Delaware and Oregon data reflect actual 2007 spending, Arizona data reflect actual 2010 spending, Maine data reflect actual 2012 spending and Illinois’ projections reflect the Quinn administration’s projections for 2014.

One of these things is not like the others. States that have expanded Medicaid eligibility to this group of people have found that childless adults cost between 67 percent and 163 percent more to cover than low-income parents. If Illinois has the same experiences as other states, the expansion would cost state and federal taxpayers between $6.3 billion and $16.9 billion more than the Quinn administration projects between 2014 and 2020, even if all of their other assumptions are correct.

Instead of opting into an irresponsible Medicaid expansion that would cost taxpayers big and hurt the state?s most vulnerable residents, lawmakers should refocus their efforts on improving the quality of the current program. After all, even President Barack Obama admits that “we can’t simply put more people into a broken system that doesn’t work.”