AFSCME members have voted: What happens next?

AFSCME members have spent the last few weeks voting on whether to authorize what could be the first-ever state worker strike in Illinois history. Even if members vote to authorize a strike, it doesn’t mean a strike is imminent – nor does it mean that the majority of state workers want to strike.

Illinois state workers represented by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees are wrapping up a three-week strike authorization vote on Feb. 19. This is new territory: If AFSCME calls a strike, it would be the first time in state history.

This new territory means there are quite a few unanswered questions regarding the strategy and outcome of a potential strike.

But a few things are certain. Even if AFSCME members vote to authorize a strike, that does not mean the majority of state workers want to walk off the job. A strike vote also doesn’t mean a strike is imminent. State law ensures that residents are given notice before state workers stop working.

Even in the unlikely event that AFSCME tallies all the votes by the end of the day on Feb. 19, the earliest the union could walk out is Feb. 24.

A strike authorization does not mean that the majority of state workers want to go on strike

A strike authorization doesn’t mean the majority of state workers want a strike – it just means the majority of those who voted have authorized AFSCME leadership to call a strike.

Unions calculate strike approval based on the percentage of people who voted, not on the percentage of overall workers represented by the union. For example, if AFSCME announces that 90 percent of workers voted to authorize a strike, that does not mean 90 percent of overall state workers. It means 90 percent of those who voted.

This calculation excludes workers who decided not to vote at all. In other words, a potential strike could be authorized even if less than 50 percent of state workers vote.

State workers may not vote for a number of reasons. As nonmembers, fair share payers cannot vote. In addition, employees who are not eligible to go on strike – such as prison workers – also cannot vote on the strike authorization. And some may choose not to vote at all because co-workers view a “no” vote as going against the union.

A strike authorization does not mean state workers immediately go on strike

If AFSCME members vote to authorize a strike, it does not mean state employees will walk away from their jobs immediately. It simply means AFSCME leadership is authorized to call a strike, should they decide to do so.

However, union leadership has warned its members that a “yes” vote means employees “will be prepared to go out on strike” in the event the bargaining committee “issues the call.”

Even if AFSCME leadership calls a strike, it must first give notice

AFSCME can’t issue a midnight call for a strike and leave the state at a standstill when offices open the next day. Instead, Illinois law requires AFSCME to give at least five days’ notice of intent to strike before walking out.

That allows both the state and residents time to prepare. And the governor’s administration has already indicated it is doing just that.

Even in the unlikely event that AFSCME tallies all votes by the end of the day on Feb. 19, the earliest the union could walk out is Feb. 24.