Chicago business activity skid hits two years

A barometer of business health shows Chicago’s decline worsened in November 2025.

Monthly business activity in Chicago has now declined for two years straight, according to the Chicago Business Barometer.

The analysis gave Chicago a score of 36.3 in November 2025, the second-lowest score of the two years the city has been in decline. A score below 50 indicates business activity is declining, and a score above 50 points indicates expansion. Chicago’s score has been below 50 for 24 consecutive months.

The decline was driven by decreases in order backlogs, which decreased 21.5 points on a 100-point scale to the lowest level since March 2009, and new orders, which went down 12 points. Production and employment also declined.

The barometer surveys supply chain professionals across industries on a range of factors, including the number of new orders, inventories, production, employment and supplier deliveries. It asks businesses whether there have been increases, decreases or no change in these factors for their companies, then calculates a single overall indicator of the health of Chicago’s economy.

This decline in business activity has coincided with a job market consistently worse than the national one. Chicago-area unemployment stood at 4.9% as of July 2025, higher than the country’s 4.6% rate, the latest data showed.

In every quarter since July 2023, employment has increased more nationally than in Chicago. From July 2024 to July 2025, employment in Chicago only increased by 0.6% or 26,800 jobs. Most of those gains – 16,300 – were in education and health services.

While the U.S. economy as a whole grew 2.9% in 2023, the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin region grew at only 1.4%, according to federal data.

To stop the slide, the city of Chicago needs to focus on pro-growth policies such as:

• Establishing fiscal stability. Research shows fiscal stability is a prerequisite for economic growth and is essential for attracting private investment and expanding the tax base.
• Simplifying the tax code to make it easier for businesses to operate and grow.
• Reducing corporate property taxes, which are the highest among large cities and more than double the average, according to a recent report.    

The city also needs to avoid anti-growth policies such as the city’s proposed “head tax” of $33 per employee for businesses over 100 people. Another job killer is the proposed tax increase on cloud-based computer services from 11% to 14%.

Chicago needs to foster business, not find more harmful taxation that further extends its decline.