Falling birth rates could worsen Illinois’ declining public school enrollment
Illinois public schools are teaching fewer students compared to a decade ago, yet taxpayers continue funding a system built for more students.
Falling birth rates suggest that Illinois’ declining public school enrollment will continue, a reality that should inform decisions of education policymakers.
The National Center for Education Statistics projected in early 2024 that Illinois public school enrollment would fall to 1.8 million students by 2030, but the number had already dropped to almost that low for the 2024-25 school year, according to state data.
The COVID-19 pandemic was a major factor in the decline in, but enrollment had already been falling for years. Year-over-year enrollment in Illinois increased only two times over the past 15 school years.
This is not just an Illinois problem. Nationally, public schools are serving 1.2 million fewer students in 2022-23 than before the pandemic, and enrollment is projected to fall by another 2.4 million students by 2031.
A shrinking student population
Falling birth rates factor in. Illinois recorded just under 125,000 births in 2023, a 31% decline from 2007 and one of the steepest drops in the country.
Birth data previews of future enrollment trends. Less births today mean fewer elementary and high school students in the years ahead. The drop in births is occurring among outmigration and families choosing other education options, further contributing to the state’s enrollment decline.
CPS as a case study
Chicago Public Schools offer a glimpse of what many districts may face. CPS enrolled 316,224 students at the start of the 2025-26 school year, down 17% from 2016-17. The district projects enrollment over the next three years could decline by up to 8% over that period.
The city’s declining birth trends are even steeper compared to the rest of the state. Chicago recorded 26,950 births in 2023, a decline of 37% from 2010.
Fewer students have left CPS maintaining buildings designed for far larger enrollments. The district has and 58% of its school buildings are underutilized, which the state defines as enrolling less than 70% capacity. More than 150 schools operate below half their capacity, with 50 being at one-third capacity or less.
Severely underutilized CPS elementary schools spend roughly $4,700 more per student than those that are efficiently utilized, or at 70% or more of capacity. Severely underutilized high schools spend on average more than $12,000 more per student compared to efficient schools.
Empty seats burden taxpayers
Illinois cannot afford to ignore these trends. As enrollment declines, taxpayers must cover the same fixed costs across a shrinking student population. Dollars that could support students remain tied up maintaining underused buildings.
Policymakers should address this reality. That means directing education dollars toward students rather than empty seats.