Illinois’ population loss could make congressional gerrymandering harder in 2030
The state is predicted to lose a U.S. House seat in the next redistricting cycle.
Illinois Democrats might find it harder to maintain their partisan advantage in U.S. House elections in 2030 redistricting.
The state’s districts are already practically maximized for partisan advantage, and Illinois’ population loss will limit Democrats’ options even more.
Shrinking population is set to cost the state another seat in Congress. Illinois has steadily lost residents in recent years — more than 50,000 every year from 2017 to 2022. The state has only recently seen small gains, due mostly to international migration. Those gains are unlikely to grow the population enough to counteract the early losses this decade in conjunction with the increases other states are seeing.
Based on the 2024 presidential election, 54% of Illinois voters are Democrats, yet Democrats hold 82% of Illinois’ U.S. House seats.
With one fewer seat to work with, Illinois Democrats would have a difficult time drawing maps that would eliminate another Republican district. Keeping their current 14 seats would give Democrats over 87% of Illinois’ U.S. House delegation.
When it comes to congressional gerrymandering, even the would-be beneficiaries recognize Illinois is stretched to the limit.
After Republican-controlled states passed mid-cycle redistricting plans to increase their partisan advantage, Illinois Democrats rejected a proposal to do the same. They objected not on principle, but because trying to maximize their seats would force them to dilute their voter base, endangering incumbents’ safe seats — inadvertently giving voters a meaningful choice.
Republicans and Democrats in Congress should work to remove politicians from the districting process. In seven states, an independent commission is responsible for congressional redistricting.
Even better, five of those states explicitly list competitiveness as a requirement for any redistricting plan, ideally increasing the weight of anyone’s vote in an election.
That would mean putting the voters first and ending the practice of politicians divvying them up.