Every 9 minutes, 21 seconds, Illinois loses another resident

Illinois continues to lose residents to other states. Another Illinoisan left every 9 minutes and 21 seconds from July 2023 to June 2024.

Illinois loses a resident every 9 minutes and 21 seconds to another state, according to the most recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Illinois lost a total of 56,235 residents to other states from July 2023 to June 2024. That’s more than the entire population of Oak Lawn.

There were 11,012 more births than deaths in Illinois, and the state got a massive boost of 112,955 from international migrants – nearly 10 times more than what the state received in 2021 and almost five times what the state gained on average from 2010-2020 before the pandemic.

While some, such as Gov. J.B. Pritzker, misconstrued this data to suggest Illinois had finally bucked its near decade-long trend of population decline, his interpretation ignores the fundamental realities of Illinois’ population trends. Illinois’ population is likely to resume declining because residents are fleeing to other states where they can better prosper.

Domestic migration saw the state shed 56,235 residents as the state continues to push people to other states with high taxation, a poor job market and housing issues.

During the past two years, Illinois has received a massive influx of immigrants, particularly in Chicago. The city has been the center of heated political debate between public leaders and residents over financial and other resources being used for newcomers after local minority and low-income residents have said their needs have been neglected for decades. The latest Census Bureau estimates confirm the extent of international migration to the state during the past several years, while raising questions of the sustainability of this trend.

Previous trends of domestic migration continue to hold in Illinois. The state is pushing more of its own residents to other places in the country than virtually any other state, ranking 48th in losses because of moves to other states.

Surveys of those who have left the state – where taxes are not a response option – showed the major reasons Illinoisans have chosen to leave have been for better housing and employment opportunities, both of which have been made worse by poor public policy in Illinois.

High taxes were the No. 1 reason why Illinoisans considered leaving the state. Polling from NPR Illinois and the University of Illinois found 61% of Illinoisans thought about moving out of state in 2019, and the No. 1 reason was taxes. The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found 47% of Illinoisans wanted to leave the state, and “taxes are the single biggest reason people want to leave” with 27% of respondents citing taxes as the motive for departing in 2016. More recent polling conducted by Echelon Insights in 2023 substantiated those sentiments.

Unfortunately, there have been renewed proposals by state lawmakers to eliminate Illinois’ constitutionally protected flat income tax, which would likely only exacerbate the state’s tax burden. Senate Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 4, introduced Feb. 5 by state Sen. Robert Martwick, D-Chicago, and a similar constitutional amendment filed in the Illinois House, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 8, filed by state Rep. Curtis Tarver, D-Chicago, both seek replace Illinois’ flat income tax with progressive income tax structures.

These proposals would likely exacerbate Illinois’ outmigration crisis because as a group, states with progressive income tax structures are the only ones losing residents on net.

State lawmakers should pay attention to the common themes among states that are growing, or shrinking, because of domestic migration. If state leaders refuse to acknowledge these realities and ignore why so many Illinoisans are leaving – taxes and business regulations that make life harder – the state can expect to see the continued exodus of residents to other states.