Population loss could cost Illinois a second seat in Congress under Pritzker

Data suggest the state is on pace to lose a U.S. representative in 2030.

Illinois is on pace to lose its second congressional seat because of population loss under Gov. J.B. Pritzker.

Since Pritzker was elected in 2018, Illinois has lost more than 168,000 residents. In a recent poll of Illinois voters, more than half said they would leave the state if given the opportunity.

Of those who would leave, almost 69% cited taxes as a top one or two issue facing Illinois. In 2024, 95% of those leaving Illinois fled to states with lower tax burdens.

Pritzker entered office as Illinois was already struggling with outmigration. He identified reversing it as a goal in his 2019 economic plan.

Nearly eight years later, that has not happened.

Illinois lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census, continuing a decades-long decline in the state’s representation in Washington. Illinois has lost 10 U.S. House seats since 1910, falling from 27 to 17.

Now past the halfway point in the decade, census data suggest that Illinois is on pace to lose another House seat in the reapportionment after the 2030 census.

In 2030, a decennial census will tally the state’s population and determine how congressional seats are distributed nationwide. Despite small population increases from 2023 to 2025 because of international migration, Illinois has lost residents overall under Pritzker’s administration. Also, international migration to Illinois is declining while the state continues to struggle with outmigration.

From 2018 to 2025, the state lost over 1% of its population while the rest of the Midwest grew by 2.1%.